日期 |
黃金價格 |
美元漲跌幅 |
美國10年期 |
CPI年增率 |
實質利率 |
S&P500指數 |
主要因素 |
1980年 |
15.19% |
5.33% |
12.43% |
12.52% |
-0.08% |
25.77% |
|
1981年 |
-32.60% |
15.82% |
13.98% |
8.92% |
5.06% |
-9.73% |
1.低實質利率 |
1982年 |
14.94% |
12.10% |
10.39% |
3.83% |
6.56% |
14.76% |
|
1983年 |
-16.31% |
12.30% |
11.80% |
3.79% |
8.01% |
17.27% |
|
1984年 |
-19.19% |
14.93% |
11.51% |
3.95% |
7.57% |
1.40% |
|
1985年 |
5.76% |
-18.49% |
8.99% |
3.80% |
5.19% |
26.33% |
美元大幅貶值 |
1986年 |
18.96% |
-16.09% |
7.22% |
1.10% |
6.13% |
14.62% |
|
1987年 |
24.53% |
-17.56% |
8.86% |
4.43% |
4.42% |
2.03% |
|
1988年 |
-15.26% |
8.35% |
9.14% |
4.42% |
4.72% |
12.40% |
美元走勢及實質利率仍高、股市上漲使1988-1992金價相對弱勢 |
1989年 |
-2.19% |
0.68% |
7.94% |
4.65% |
3.29% |
27.25% |
|
1990年 |
-4.60% |
-10.78% |
8.07% |
6.11% |
1.96% |
-6.56% |
|
1991年 |
-7.75% |
0.49% |
6.70% |
3.06% |
3.63% |
26.31% |
|
1992年 |
-5.73% |
10.57% |
6.69% |
2.90% |
3.79% |
4.46% |
|
1993年 |
17.36% |
4.85% |
5.79% |
2.75% |
3.05% |
7.06% |
|
1994年 |
-1.92% |
-8.38% |
7.82% |
2.67% |
5.15% |
-1.54% |
|
1995年 |
1.02% |
-4.46% |
5.57% |
2.54% |
3.03% |
34.11% |
|
1996年 |
-4.55% |
3.96% |
6.42% |
3.32% |
3.10% |
20.26% |
1.美元轉強 |
1997年 |
-21.69% |
13.08% |
5.74% |
1.70% |
4.04% |
31.01% |
|
1998年 |
-0.60% |
-5.50% |
4.65% |
1.61% |
3.04% |
26.67% |
|
1999年 |
0.75% |
8.18% |
6.44% |
2.68% |
3.76% |
19.53% |
|
2000年 |
-5.87% |
7.55% |
5.11% |
3.39% |
1.73% |
-10.14% |
|
2001年 |
1.52% |
6.56% |
5.05% |
1.55% |
3.50% |
-13.04% |
|
2002年 |
23.85% |
-12.76% |
3.82% |
2.38% |
1.44% |
-23.37% |
. 美元貶值避險 |
2003年 |
21.72% |
-14.66% |
4.25% |
1.88% |
2.37% |
26.38% |
|
2004年 |
4.96% |
-6.98% |
4.22% |
3.26% |
0.96% |
8.99% |
|
2005年 |
17.15% |
12.76% |
4.39% |
3.42% |
0.98% |
3.00% |
|
2006年 |
23.77% |
-8.25% |
4.70% |
2.54% |
2.16% |
13.62% |
|
2007年 |
31.70% |
-8.31% |
4.02% |
4.08% |
-0.06% |
3.53% |
|
2008年 |
3.47% |
6.01% |
2.21% |
0.09% |
2.12% |
-38.49% |
|
2009年 |
27.61% |
-4.24% |
3.84% |
2.72% |
1.12% |
23.45% |
|
2010年 |
27.87% |
1.50% |
3.29% |
1.50% |
1.80% |
12.78% |
|
2011年 |
11.31% |
1.46% |
1.88% |
2.96% |
-1.09% |
0.00% |
|
2012年 |
5.86% |
-0.51% |
1.76% |
1.74% |
0.02% |
13.41% |
|
2013年 |
-27.75% |
0.33% |
3.03% |
1.50% |
1.53% |
29.60% |
1.QE退場議題 |
2014年 |
-0.32% |
12.79% |
2.17% |
0.76% |
1.41% |
11.39% |
|
2015年 |
-11.37% |
9.26% |
2.27% |
0.73% |
1.54% |
-0.73% |
|
2016年 |
9.13% |
3.63% |
2.44% |
2.07% |
0.37% |
9.54% |
低質實利率 |
2017年 |
11.87% |
-9.87% |
2.41% |
2.11% |
0.30% |
19.42% |
美元貶值、低實質利率 |
2018年 |
-1.13% |
4.40% |
2.68% |
2.18% |
0.51% |
-6.24% |
|
2019年 |
18.30% |
0.22% |
1.92% |
2.29% |
-0.37% |
28.88% |
低實質利率 |
2020年 (~7/26) |
26.07% |
-2.08% |
0.59% |
0.65% |
-0.06% |
-0.47% |
美元貶值、低實質利率 |
資料來源:Bloomberg
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